Benford's Law and 2020 Presidential Voter Fraud

Benford’s Law applied to the State of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election vote counts.

As a forensic accountant I have many ways and techniques to spot fraud. One of the ways to detect fraud, especially when analyzing tax returns, general ledgers and other items that contain a large amount of numerical data is by applying Benford’s Law.

Benford’s Law states that any random numbers will have a specific result as to which digits appear first in each data set. The law gives a prediction of frequency of leading digits using base-10 logarithms.

When you analyze data you would expect to see the first digit in the data to be a one about 30% of the time, expect a two to be the first digit in the data about 17.6% of the time.

When analyzing large data sets it is easy to spot anomalies that tip us off that there is a high probability that the numbers have been manipulated. From there we perform forensic accounting techniques in order to establish fraud.

I will fix the data and then I will use an Excel formula to segregate the data based on the first digit that appears.

=LEFT(B2,1)

=COUNTIFS (\$C\$2: \$C\$61, D2)

Once I have this, I am going to then look at it from a percentage standpoint, graph it and compare it to what it should look like as noted above.

This analysis is telling me that the data is not random and there is a high likelihood of fraud. You can see that the bar chart does not have an even downward slope as expected.

In conclusion, Benford's analysis applied to the 159 county vote counts of Georgia for the presidential election of 2020, indicates that the date is manipulated.